Bayern | Germany | A House Divided

Germany is an econ-only nation. You can view every page here, but you cannot run for office, join a party, or vote.

Population

100

Political lean

Econ -0.6Soc +0.7

Turnout

72.6%

Demographic categories

Local newsrooms lean Econ -0.6, Soc -1.2. They are pulling opinion toward it by about Econ -0.00, Soc -0.01 per day.

Electorate — strategy board

State projectionCDU +4

Christlich Demokratische Union 24%Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 20%Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 19%Freie Demokratische Partei 16%Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 12%Partei des Demokratischen Sozialismus 9%50% flip line

Persuadable1 groups

100%

Persuadable100%

Deutsche

Persuadable

Herkunft · 100.0% of this region's voters

Share of electorate

100.0%

Turnout habit

Reliable

77% show up

Leaning toward

No clear favorite

Persuadable

Economic lean

Center-left

Average -0.5 · Left -5 to right +5

Social lean

Traditional

Average +0.7 · Progressive -5 to traditional +5

Turnout updated: Oct 16, 2026

Ethnicity / Background

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
German (no migration background)	87%	0.0%	78.0%
Turkish / Russian-German	5%	0.0%	58.0%
MENA	2%	0.0%	52.0%
EU Southern / Eastern	4%	0.0%	60.0%
Other	2%	0.0%	55.0%

Age Distribution

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
Young (18-29)	19%	0.0%	70.0%
Mid (30-44)	23%	0.0%	76.0%
Mature (45-64)	34%	0.0%	81.0%
Senior (65+)	24%	0.0%	84.0%

Education (Highest)

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
No / Hauptschule	22%	0.0%	68.0%
Vocational (Lehre)	52%	0.0%	76.0%
Abitur / Fachhochschulreife	13%	0.0%	80.0%
University degree	13%	0.0%	83.0%

Household Income

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
Lower income	21%	0.0%	68.0%
Middle income	55%	0.0%	78.0%
Upper income	24%	0.0%	82.0%

Urbanization

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
Urban	42%	0.0%	76.0%
Suburban / town	30%	0.0%	77.0%
Rural	28%	0.0%	78.0%

How to read turnout data

Turnout % = Baseline + GOTV modifier (expected turnout for this group)
GOTV ± = party boost or suppression vs baseline
Green = Higher than baseline (GOTV/canvassing boost)
Red = Lower than baseline
Modifiers decay 2% per turn toward 0