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The Zone of

North-West

Population: 26.9M
GDP: ₦83B
House districts: 95
Lean: Centrist, Center-Trad
Government approval: 49.8%
Governor: Bashir BakareNRC

Population

99.99

Political lean

Econ +0.2Soc +0.6

Turnout

48.1%

Demographic categories

27

Electorate — strategy board

State projectionNRC +6

National Republican Convention 53%Social Democratic Party 47%50% flip line

Persuadable2 groups

100%

Persuadable100%

M

Muslims

Persuadable

Faith · 88.3% of this region's voters

Share of electorate

88.3%

Turnout habit

Low-propensity

44% show up

Leaning toward

No clear favorite

Persuadable

Economic lean

Centrist

Average +0.3 · Left -5 to right +5

Social lean

Traditional

Average +1.1 · Progressive -5 to traditional +5

Turnout updated: Oct 16, 2026

Ethnicity

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
hausa_fulani	75%	0.0%	42.0%
yoruba	2%	0.0%	55.0%
igbo	1%	0.0%	58.0%
minority	22%	0.0%	45.0%

Age distribution

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
young	55%	0.0%	38.0%
mid	25%	0.0%	50.0%
mature	13%	0.0%	55.0%
senior	7%	0.0%	50.0%

Education

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
basic	70%	0.0%	40.0%
secondary	22%	0.0%	50.0%
tertiary	8%	0.0%	60.0%

Household income

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
low	60%	0.0%	38.0%
middle	30%	0.0%	50.0%
high	10%	0.0%	62.0%

Urbanization

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
urban	30%	0.0%	52.0%
suburban	15%	0.0%	50.0%
rural	55%	0.0%	38.0%

How to read turnout data

Turnout % = Baseline + GOTV modifier (expected turnout for this group)
GOTV ± = party boost or suppression vs baseline
Green = Higher than baseline (GOTV/canvassing boost)
Red = Lower than baseline
Modifiers decay 2% per turn toward 0

Population

99.99

Political lean

Econ +0.2Soc +0.6

Turnout

48.1%

Demographic categories

27

Electorate — strategy board

State projectionNRC +6

National Republican Convention 53%Social Democratic Party 47%50% flip line

Persuadable2 groups

100%

Persuadable100%

M

Muslims

Persuadable

Faith · 88.3% of this region's voters

Share of electorate

88.3%

Turnout habit

Low-propensity

44% show up

Leaning toward

No clear favorite

Persuadable

Economic lean

Centrist

Average +0.3 · Left -5 to right +5

Social lean

Traditional

Average +1.1 · Progressive -5 to traditional +5

Turnout updated: Oct 16, 2026

Ethnicity

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
hausa_fulani	75%	0.0%	42.0%
yoruba	2%	0.0%	55.0%
igbo	1%	0.0%	58.0%
minority	22%	0.0%	45.0%

Age distribution

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
young	55%	0.0%	38.0%
mid	25%	0.0%	50.0%
mature	13%	0.0%	55.0%
senior	7%	0.0%	50.0%

Education

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
basic	70%	0.0%	40.0%
secondary	22%	0.0%	50.0%
tertiary	8%	0.0%	60.0%

Household income

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
low	60%	0.0%	38.0%
middle	30%	0.0%	50.0%
high	10%	0.0%	62.0%

Urbanization

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
urban	30%	0.0%	52.0%
suburban	15%	0.0%	50.0%
rural	55%	0.0%	38.0%

How to read turnout data

Turnout % = Baseline + GOTV modifier (expected turnout for this group)
GOTV ± = party boost or suppression vs baseline
Green = Higher than baseline (GOTV/canvassing boost)
Red = Lower than baseline
Modifiers decay 2% per turn toward 0