Pennsylvania | United States | A House Divided

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Population

99.98

Political lean

Econ +0.2Soc -0.5

Turnout

62.4%

Demographic categories

27

Local newsrooms lean Econ -2.0, Soc -2.0. They are pulling opinion toward it by about Econ -0.03, Soc -0.02 per day.

Electorate — strategy board

Persuadable4 groups

100%

Persuadable100%

WV

White voters

Unclassified

Background · 91.3% of this region's voters

Share of electorate

91.3%

Turnout habit

Occasional

59% show up

Leaning toward

No clear favorite

Persuadable

Economic lean

Centrist

Average +0.2 · Left -5 to right +5

Social lean

Liberal

Average -0.5 · Progressive -5 to traditional +5

Turnout updated: Oct 16, 2026

Race / Ethnicity

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
White	88%	+2.2%	65.2%
Black	9%	0.0%	60.0%
Hispanic	2%	0.0%	48.0%
Asian	1%	0.0%	52.0%
Other	0%	0.0%	52.0%

Education

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
No College	82%	0.0%	52.0%
College	12%	+2.2%	68.2%
Graduate	6%	0.0%	74.0%

Income

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
Low Income	26%	0.0%	44.0%
Medium Income	56%	+14.9%	74.9%
High Income	18%	0.0%	74.0%

Age

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
Young (18-29)	25%	+2.3%	40.3%
Mid (30-44)	25%	0.0%	56.0%
Mature (45-64)	27%	0.0%	66.0%
Senior (65+)	23%	0.0%	76.0%

Ideological tendencies

Group	Share	GOTV ±	Turnout %
Evangelicals	13%	0.0%	77.0%
Environmentalists	6%	0.0%	66.0%
Libertarians	5%	0.0%	64.0%
Progressives	7%	0.0%	64.0%
Patriots	12%	0.0%	69.0%
Gun Owners	15%	0.0%	67.0%

How to read turnout data

Turnout % = Baseline + GOTV modifier (expected turnout for this demographic)
GOTV ± = party boost or suppression vs baseline
Green = Higher than baseline (GOTV/canvassing boost)
Red = Lower than baseline
Modifiers decay 2% per turn toward 0