Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Roberto holds 58.4% against 41.6% for the nearest rival.
Why New Jersey voters lean toward Hassan Lewis over Roberto. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Roberto's vote can be persuaded across to Hassan Lewis, and 20.0% of Hassan Lewis's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.