Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
7 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 64,761 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 7 were settled on largest remainder.
Why Maryland voters lean toward Cass Elliot over Melissa McKinney. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Melissa McKinney's vote can be persuaded across to Cass Elliot, and 20.0% of Cass Elliot's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.2 pts of that movable slice.