Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
40 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 67,257 votes buys one seat; 9 of the 40 were settled on largest remainder.
Why New York voters lean toward Sean Oppenheimer over Kimberly Lincoln. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Kimberly Lincoln's vote can be persuaded across to Sean Oppenheimer, and 20.0% of Sean Oppenheimer's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.