Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
10 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 63,581 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 10 were settled on largest remainder.
Why Wisconsin voters lean toward Joseph McCarthy over Daniel Madison. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Daniel Madison's vote can be persuaded across to Joseph McCarthy, and 20.0% of Joseph McCarthy's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.