Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
41 seats, apportioned by share of 739,230 votes cast.
Why AT_NOE voters lean toward Kevin Liu over Thomas Greco. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Thomas Greco's vote can be persuaded across to Kevin Liu, and 20.0% of Kevin Liu's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.