Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 397.0k | 25.9% |
Andrew HallNPP Sozialistische Partei Österreichs | 381.9k | 24.9% |
Carmen JonesNPP Österreichische Volkspartei | 380.3k | 24.8% |
Verband der Unabhängigen | 375.8k | 24.5% |
Why AT_NOE voters lean toward Mary Washington over Elena Washington. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Elena Washington's vote can be persuaded across to Mary Washington, and 20.0% of Mary Washington's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.