Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Österreichische Volkspartei | 457.2k | 32.7% |
Verband der Unabhängigen | 418.2k | 29.9% |
Tamika EvansNPP Sozialistische Partei Österreichs | 282.6k | 20.2% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 241.7k | 17.3% |
Why AT_STK voters lean toward Christine Johnson over Rafael Miller IV. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Rafael Miller IV's vote can be persuaded across to Christine Johnson, and 20.0% of Christine Johnson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.