Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Österreichische Volkspartei | 152.7k | 31.2% |
Verband der Unabhängigen | 145.1k | 29.6% |
Sozialistische Partei Österreichs | 116.8k | 23.9% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 75.0k | 15.3% |
Why AT_TYR voters lean toward Raj Gomez Jr. over Jeffrey Fischer. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jeffrey Fischer's vote can be persuaded across to Raj Gomez Jr., and 20.0% of Raj Gomez Jr.'s vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.