Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Amit HuntNPP Österreichische Volkspartei | 407.0k | 28.5% |
Sozialistische Partei Österreichs | 384.6k | 26.9% |
Miguel FoxNPP Verband der Unabhängigen | 370.6k | 25.9% |
Karen BanksNPP Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 267.9k | 18.7% |
Why AT_VIE voters lean toward Miguel Fox over Karen Banks. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Karen Banks's vote can be persuaded across to Miguel Fox, and 20.0% of Miguel Fox's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.