Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Regional votes are counted. Seat allocation awaits the complete nationwide count and party eligibility.
Why BG_THR voters lean toward Vladimir Kanev over Simeon Donchev. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Simeon Donchev's vote can be persuaded across to Vladimir Kanev, and 20.0% of Vladimir Kanev's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.