Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
141 seats, apportioned by share of 15,392,217 votes cast.
Why NORDESTE voters lean toward Mauro Fecury over Jaques Wagner. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jaques Wagner's vote can be persuaded across to Mauro Fecury, and 20.0% of Mauro Fecury's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.