Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Ronan Tito took 13.0% against 12.5% for the nearest rival.
Why SUDESTE voters lean toward Andrea Bezerra over José Genoíno. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of José Genoíno's vote can be persuaded across to Andrea Bezerra, and 20.0% of Andrea Bezerra's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.