Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Pedro Simon took 14.6% against 12.8% for the nearest rival.
Why SUL voters lean toward Ervin Bonkoski over Gabriel Coelho. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Gabriel Coelho's vote can be persuaded across to Ervin Bonkoski, and 20.0% of Ervin Bonkoski's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.