Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
27 seats, apportioned by share of 13,681,970 votes cast.
Why NORDESTE voters lean toward Lucas Mendes over Pedro Mendes. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Pedro Mendes's vote can be persuaded across to Lucas Mendes, and 20.0% of Lucas Mendes's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.9 pts of that movable slice.