Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
395 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 232,706 votes buys one seat; 25 of the 395 were settled on largest remainder.
Why HZ voters lean toward Duan Junyi over Chu Tunan. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Chu Tunan's vote can be persuaded across to Duan Junyi, and 20.0% of Duan Junyi's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.