Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
320 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 111,989 votes buys one seat; 22 of the 320 were settled on largest remainder.
Why XB voters lean toward Jia Zhijie over Su Buqing. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Su Buqing's vote can be persuaded across to Jia Zhijie, and 20.0% of Jia Zhijie's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.3 pts of that movable slice.