Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
425 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 98,312 votes buys one seat; 29 of the 425 were settled on largest remainder.
Why HN voters lean toward Deng Hongxun over Qu Wu. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Qu Wu's vote can be persuaded across to Deng Hongxun, and 20.0% of Deng Hongxun's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.