Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
533 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 144,816 votes buys one seat; 37 of the 533 were settled on largest remainder.
Why HZ voters lean toward Peng Zhen over Ye Shengtao. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ye Shengtao's vote can be persuaded across to Peng Zhen, and 20.0% of Peng Zhen's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.