Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
423 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 70,056 votes buys one seat; 27 of the 423 were settled on largest remainder.
Why XB voters lean toward Ma Sizhong over Cai Xiao. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Cai Xiao's vote can be persuaded across to Ma Sizhong, and 20.0% of Ma Sizhong's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.2 pts of that movable slice.