Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
625 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 106,917 votes buys one seat; 47 of the 625 were settled on largest remainder.
Why XN voters lean toward Yao Yilin over Jin Shanbao. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jin Shanbao's vote can be persuaded across to Yao Yilin, and 20.0% of Yao Yilin's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.3 pts of that movable slice.