Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 549.7k | 29.7% |
Uwe BeckNPP Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 335.0k | 18.1% |
Erich KoenigNPP Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 333.0k | 18.0% |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 324.3k | 17.5% |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 309.5k | 16.7% |
Why BB voters lean toward Petra Schmitz over Christa Krause. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Christa Krause's vote can be persuaded across to Petra Schmitz, and 20.0% of Petra Schmitz's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.