Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 684.4k | 23.5% | |
Uwe RothNPP National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 590.3k | 20.3% |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 575.1k | 19.7% |
Uwe WeberNPP Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 535.5k | 18.4% |
Kurt LangeNPP Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 527.4k | 18.1% |
Why ST voters lean toward Kurt Lange over Wolfram Frank. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Wolfram Frank's vote can be persuaded across to Kurt Lange, and 20.0% of Kurt Lange's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.