Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 407.0k | 29.3% | 5 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 390.5k | 28.1% | 1 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 345.0k | 24.8% | 2 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 247.5k | 17.8% | 3 |
Why BB voters lean toward Winfried Schumacher over Wilhelm Keller. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Wilhelm Keller's vote can be persuaded across to Winfried Schumacher, and 20.0% of Winfried Schumacher's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.