Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 228.0k | 35.9% | 2 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 222.0k | 34.9% | 1 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 185.8k | 29.2% | 2 |
Why BEO voters lean toward Reinhard Schumacher over Winfried Simon. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Winfried Simon's vote can be persuaded across to Reinhard Schumacher, and 20.0% of Reinhard Schumacher's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.