Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 380.0k | 33.6% | 1 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 292.5k | 25.9% | 4 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 231.2k | 20.4% | 1 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 227.6k | 20.1% | 3 |
Why MV voters lean toward Winfried Schaefer over Anneliese Wagner. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Anneliese Wagner's vote can be persuaded across to Winfried Schaefer, and 20.0% of Winfried Schaefer's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.