Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 851.5k | 28.8% | 3 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 816.4k | 27.6% | 9 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 724.3k | 24.5% | 8 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 561.8k | 19.0% | 4 |
Why SN voters lean toward Kerstin Koch over Helmut Huber. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Helmut Huber's vote can be persuaded across to Kerstin Koch, and 20.0% of Kerstin Koch's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.