Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 637.2k | 29.1% | 2 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 549.2k | 25.1% | 7 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 547.9k | 25.1% | 3 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 452.2k | 20.7% | 6 |
Why ST voters lean toward Dieter Krueger over Christel Schulz. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Christel Schulz's vote can be persuaded across to Dieter Krueger, and 20.0% of Dieter Krueger's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.