Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
G Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 506.1k | 34.1% | 6 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 502.0k | 33.8% | 5 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 476.9k | 32.1% | 2 |
Why TH voters lean toward Juergen Herrmann over Karin Wolf. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Karin Wolf's vote can be persuaded across to Juergen Herrmann, and 20.0% of Juergen Herrmann's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.