Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
38 seats, apportioned by share of 2,220,050 votes cast.
Why BW voters lean toward Achim Rohde over Erwin Teufel. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Erwin Teufel's vote can be persuaded across to Achim Rohde, and 20.0% of Achim Rohde's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.