Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
30 seats, apportioned by share of 3,371,109 votes cast.
Why NI voters lean toward Gerhard Schröder over Alexander Frank. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Alexander Frank's vote can be persuaded across to Gerhard Schröder, and 20.0% of Gerhard Schröder's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.