Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
8 seats, apportioned by share of 629,685 votes cast.
Why TH voters lean toward Lukas Koch over Dirk Albrecht. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Dirk Albrecht's vote can be persuaded across to Lukas Koch, and 20.0% of Lukas Koch's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.