Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
200 seats, apportioned by share of 1,664,820 votes cast.
Why BE voters lean toward Wolfgang Thierse over Sabine Bergmann-Pohl. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sabine Bergmann-Pohl's vote can be persuaded across to Wolfgang Thierse, and 20.0% of Wolfgang Thierse's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.