Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
201 seats, apportioned by share of 8,065,171 votes cast.
Why NW voters lean toward Friedhelm Farthmann over Helmut Linssen. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Helmut Linssen's vote can be persuaded across to Friedhelm Farthmann, and 20.0% of Friedhelm Farthmann's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.