Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Walter Momper took 33.9% against 28.3% for the nearest rival.
Why BE voters lean toward Walter Momper over Hanna-Renate Laurien. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Hanna-Renate Laurien's vote can be persuaded across to Walter Momper, and 20.0% of Walter Momper's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.