Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul took 41.5% against 33.3% for the nearest rival.
Why HE voters lean toward Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul over Friedrich Bohl. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Friedrich Bohl's vote can be persuaded across to Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, and 20.0% of Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.