Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Helmut Kohl took 38.0% against 24.7% for the nearest rival.
Why RP voters lean toward Eckhart Pick over Helmut Kohl. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Helmut Kohl's vote can be persuaded across to Eckhart Pick, and 20.0% of Eckhart Pick's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.5 pts of that movable slice.