Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
61 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 44,408 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 61 were settled on largest remainder.
Why ES_AND voters lean toward Blanca Mendez Hernandez over Elena Garcia. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Elena Garcia's vote can be persuaded across to Blanca Mendez Hernandez, and 20.0% of Blanca Mendez Hernandez's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.