Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
56 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 48,495 votes buys one seat; 2 of the 56 were settled on largest remainder.
Why ES_CAT voters lean toward Juan Calvo over Sara Vazquez Torres. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sara Vazquez Torres's vote can be persuaded across to Juan Calvo, and 20.0% of Juan Calvo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.