Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
44 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 48,676 votes buys one seat; 4 of the 44 were settled on largest remainder.
Why ES_MAD voters lean toward Angeles Medina Caballero over Francisco Ortiz. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Francisco Ortiz's vote can be persuaded across to Angeles Medina Caballero, and 20.0% of Angeles Medina Caballero's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.2 pts of that movable slice.