Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
26 seats, apportioned by share of 1,906,690 votes cast.
Why ES_MAD voters lean toward Pilar Guerrero over Angeles Sanchez Prieto. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Angeles Sanchez Prieto's vote can be persuaded across to Pilar Guerrero, and 20.0% of Pilar Guerrero's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.