Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Maalaisliitto | 285.6k | 36.0% |
Nathan GuptaNPP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 197.2k | 24.9% |
Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 162.9k | 20.6% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus | 146.7k | 18.5% |
Why FI_EAS voters lean toward Matthew Banks over Nathan Gupta. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Nathan Gupta's vote can be persuaded across to Matthew Banks, and 20.0% of Matthew Banks's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.