Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
George ContiNPP Maalaisliitto | 200.7k | 29.3% |
Carmen PriceNPP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 185.3k | 27.0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus | 166.2k | 24.2% |
Jose SandersNPP Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 133.6k | 19.5% |
Why FI_HAM voters lean toward George Conti over Carmen Price. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Carmen Price's vote can be persuaded across to George Conti, and 20.0% of George Conti's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.