Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Maalaisliitto | 37.6k | 28.3% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 36.8k | 27.7% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus | 30.4k | 22.9% |
Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 28.0k | 21.1% |
Why FI_LAP voters lean toward Teresa Schneider over Gabriela Grant. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Gabriela Grant's vote can be persuaded across to Teresa Schneider, and 20.0% of Teresa Schneider's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.