Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Nicole KumarNPP Maalaisliitto | 128.4k | 28.9% |
Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 109.6k | 24.7% |
Janet TorresNPP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 106.9k | 24.0% |
Sharon ScottNPP Kansallinen Kokoomus | 99.7k | 22.4% |
Why FI_SW voters lean toward Nicole Kumar over Janet Torres. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Janet Torres's vote can be persuaded across to Nicole Kumar, and 20.0% of Nicole Kumar's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.