Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 182.2k | 31.0% |
Lisa TylerNPP Maalaisliitto | 174.5k | 29.7% |
James Wu Sr.NPP Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 118.3k | 20.1% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus | 113.3k | 19.3% |
Why FI_UUS voters lean toward Lisa Tyler over Laura Colombo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Laura Colombo's vote can be persuaded across to Lisa Tyler, and 20.0% of Lisa Tyler's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.