Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 460.7k | 24.0% |
Corinne NoelNPP Parti communiste français | 405.6k | 21.2% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 397.3k | 20.7% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 337.5k | 17.6% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 315.8k | 16.5% |
Why FR_MED voters lean toward Julien Durand over Martine Baron. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Martine Baron's vote can be persuaded across to Julien Durand, and 20.0% of Julien Durand's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.