Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
53 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 64,033 votes buys one seat; 11 of the 53 were settled on largest remainder.
Why FR_MED voters lean toward Denis Joly over Sandrine Caron. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sandrine Caron's vote can be persuaded across to Denis Joly, and 20.0% of Denis Joly's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.