Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 546.0k | 24.7% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 468.7k | 21.2% |
Emilie DumasNPP Parti communiste français | 458.3k | 20.7% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 382.6k | 17.3% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 355.8k | 16.1% |
Why FR_SOU voters lean toward Laurence Lacroix over Claire Meunier. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Claire Meunier's vote can be persuaded across to Laurence Lacroix, and 20.0% of Laurence Lacroix's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.