Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 480.4k | 21.1% |
Parti communiste français | 479.2k | 21.0% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 465.6k | 20.4% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 438.4k | 19.3% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 413.9k | 18.2% |
Why FR_NOR voters lean toward Christiane Blanc over Veronique Noel. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Veronique Noel's vote can be persuaded across to Christiane Blanc, and 20.0% of Christiane Blanc's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.